Scope: National, with Los Angeles detail · Property type: Office and general commercial
What Happened
The refinancing wave is not a headline anymore. It is a list of buildings.
The Mortgage Bankers Association says $875 billion of commercial and multifamily mortgages, 17% of balances, matures in 2026, down from $957 billion in 2025, with another $652 billion due in 2027. Trepp looked at a sample of 799 commercial mortgage-backed loans, $15.1 billion in all, that have no extensions left in the second half of 2026. It estimates $8.1 billion, 54% of the sample, would need fresh equity to refinance, and 63% of the $4.8 billion of office loans in it.
The detail that matters to a leasing broker is in Los Angeles. Trepp counted $1.6 billion of suburban office loan balances, 46% of the suburban total, where the largest tenant's lease expires before the loan matures.
The Bigger Picture
Distress is high and uneven. KBRA had office distress in CMBS at 17.6% in September, and Trepp had office delinquency at 12.16%. They use different measures and should not be added together. In Los Angeles, Trepp had urban office CMBS loans at 19.7% in special servicing with median occupancy of 83%, against 6.2% and 93% for suburban offices.
The Federal Reserve raised its target range 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, which makes a refinance harder to underwrite on the same rent roll.
Labels: the MBA maturity figures are from its February 2026 release. The Trepp refinance sample is an estimate for national CMBS in the second half of 2026. Reading these as a prospecting map is TenantScout analysis.
What It Means for Tenants
An owner with a maturing loan needs signed leases. A lender looks at occupancy and remaining lease term. A tenant who can commit to term in a building with a refinance clock has more leverage than usual.
The owner may move slowly on improvements. A loan in special servicing can slow approvals and tenant improvements. Ask who the lender is early.
The Broker Angle
Four questions, in order:
- Who holds the loan, and when does it mature? County records, a CMBS filing or the owner will tell you. Without this you are guessing at the deadline.
- What does the lender need to see? Usually occupancy and remaining term. Know the gap in square feet before you pitch.
- Whose lease expires before the loan does? The largest tenant's expiration is the first risk. In suburban Los Angeles it is 46% of the balance.
- Who would fill the gap? This is the part most pitches skip. A lease-up plan that names the kinds of businesses likely to need that building, with evidence, is what an owner brings to a lender. A ranked list of likely tenants for the specific building, in hand before the first meeting, is the work TenantScout does.
For landlord reps: pitch the plan, not the listing. For tenant reps: a refinance clock is a negotiating asset.
What We're Watching
- Trepp and KBRA's October reports, and whether more large loans move to special servicing.
- California maturity data. We could not find any California-specific maturity or refinance figures from a primary source. When one appears, it goes here.
- Rates. A further move in the target range changes which loans can refinance without new equity.
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, 2025 CRE Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes (Feb 9, 2026); Trepp via CRE Daily (July 23, 2026 and Aug 2026); KBRA CMBS Loan Performance Trends (Sept 30, 2026); Trepp via Yield PRO (Oct 4, 2026); Federal Reserve press release (Sept 16, 2026).